2020 May 28 Fourth Time’s a Charm

Thursday

Welcome, family and friends to our daily journal,

from Liberty Hill, Texas.

I asked if it was going to rain. This was the answer:

“Synopsis The upper-air pattern from the CONUS westward across the northeastern Pacific will remain one characterized by split flow and cut off lows, albeit with a amplifying trend beginning in this period. The Ozarks-area cyclone and attached trough are forecast to devolve into a weakening, open-wave perturbation. By 12Z tomorrow, the resulting shortwave trough should extend from the lower Ohio Valley, northern MS, northern LA and southeast TX, somewhat in phase with a convectively induced/enhanced vorticity maximum over northeastern MX. This will occur as a northern-stream trough – evident in moisture-channel imagery from the MB-ON border to the Dakotas – pivots to the James Bay region, Lake Superior and the upper Mississippi Valley. Strong synoptic scale ridging will shift eastward across the AZ, the Great Basin and northern Rockies.

At the surface, a low was analyzed over east-central IA, with diffuse, quasistation ary front across eastern MO, central AR, and southeast/south-central TX. A secondary cold front was organizing from the low southwestward across southwestern OK to northwest TEXAS and southeastern NM. The secondary front will overtake the northward-retreating leading boundary over south TEXAS this afternoon and evening. An extensive area of at least marginal, lovalized severe potential is evident from the interior Mid-Atlantic to the Gulf States and southeastern NM, with a northward break, then in parts of the central Rockies in low-level upslope flow. This discussion will focus on two relative concentrations of severe threat within the broader swath. TX near Rio Grande Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop today over the western and northern parts of the outlook area. Thunderstorms regionally will be forced by a combination of lift from surface heating, the southward-moving baroclinic zone, and orographic forcing over the Big Bend region and northern Coahuila. Additional convection is possible this evening farther east as the frontal zone impinges on richer inflow-layer moisture. Large hail and severe gusts will be the main concerns. Height rises are expected as the Ozarks cyclone/trough weaken and move away from the area. Nonetheless, associated northwesterly flow aloft and strong directional shear will persist, despite weak low-level winds. This will contribute to 30-40-kt effective-shear magnitudes, though the lack of more robust low-level flow will limit hodograph size. Steep mid level lapse rates, along with some moisture return through an air mass affected by prior days’ convective complexes, will combine to yield MLCAPE in the 20003000 J/kg range across much of this region. More-robust moisture return is probable this evening over south-central TX and the lower Rio Grande Valley, which will be available to any convection that can develop a new

flow, in support of convective organization. Weak low-level winds and lack of stronger buoyancy will be limiting factors.”

Okay, so, is it going to rain? I think some of those words are made-up gobbledygook.

  • In 1952: Dwight Eisenhower elected President over Adlai Stevenson by wide margin; Republicans gain control of White House and both houses of Congress. Korean conflict continues as truce attempts fail.Princess Elizabeth of Britain coronated queen upon the death of her father, King George

Korean conflict continues as truce attempts fail.Princess Elizabeth of Britain coronated queen upon the death of her father, King George VI.

  • And I started kindergarten.

I posted (reposted) this on Facebook May 28, 2016.

“Fourth Time’s a Charm” video

Thanks again for stopping by. Share this with your friends. See y’all again tomorrow. Stay safe. Remember, we love you.

  • God bless and g’day.
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  • ©2020 Thomas E. Williams

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  • 7 months 28 days since we returned to Texas.
  • 2 months and 14 days being self isolated.

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